The Danger Ahead

Within hours of when the last bullet was fired in Mumbai Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi began positioning himself for his own attack on the sitting government. His request for a review of internal security is likely a continuation of his campaign to crack the whip on domestic Muslims. In 2007 Tehelka reported that Modi had inside knowledge of the planning of the Gujarat riots where an estimated 2000 people--mostly muslims--lost their lives. His visa to the United States was denied in both 2003 and 2008 on allegations of genocide.

Modi and the rest of the Hindu right--from Bal Thakery's Shiv Sena to the RSS cadres --will use the assault on Mumbai to shore up support for their parties and direct communal fervor against millions of innocent Muslims in India. Even if the sequel to the Gujarat riots does not happen, we will likely see the passage of a POTA like law (India's stronger version of the Patriot Act) and an internal and arbitrary crackdown on suspected terrorists.

And this, of course, is exactly sort of result that the elements in the ISI that most likely planned the attacks would have wanted. I have already written on how these attacks play into the ISI's strategic advantage. In the last eight years India's economy has boomed and it's military position has strengthened, putting Pakistan's own position in South Asia much weaker. The assault on Mumbai was planned and executed by trained professionals, not random rural jihadis who just picked up their first machine gun.

However, if the Hindu-right takes the bait, they could easily spin the events of the last three days into something far more sinister. By passing laws that crack down on innocent populations in the name of combating terror and possibly drumming up support for violent pogroms, there is a chance that India could end up cannibalizing itself.

The Case Against Pakistan

Terrorist in Victoria Terminal Sebastian D'Souza / Mumbai Mirror

As the siege on lower Mumbai stretches into its third day it has become clear that that attacks were not orchestrated by an unknown terrorist group, but that they had been planned, financed and carried out by elements within the Pakistani Intelligence agency known as ISI. It is still unclear if the intelligence agency acted alone or if high level members of Pakistan’s government had signed off on the operation, or whether individuals within the agency broke away with their own agenda. However, if the Pakistani government does immediate action against its rogue agency this assault could be considered an act of war.

Internally Pakistan is in chaos. The government has almost no presence in its Northwest Frontier Provence (NWFP) and has sacrificing its military sovereignty to American forces for the war on terror. After almost 60 years of stalemate on the Kashmir issue, Pakistan has begin to fall behind India. As its claim on Kashmir is losing strength hard-line Islamic militants and Taliban remnants are setting up shop across the country.

While at present, Pakistan is a major rival to India, ten years down the line the country could well be obsolete. India is becoming a major regional power, with a booming economy, a recently passed nuclear deal and a growth rate that touches on 10%. From an intelligence and security perspective, Pakistan has to either take strong measures to improve its domestic situation or hope that its rivals similarly falter.

With little hope of improving the problems within its own borders, ISI has opted to pull a card from the CIA’s former playbook and attempt to destabilize the region.

For almost forty years from 1960s through the 1990s the Central Intelligence Agency planned and executed several operations in South America, Asia and Eastern Europe, aimed at destabilizing the regions. Always operating under a guise of plausibly deniability, and without the broader support of the American people the CIA was successful at clandestine operations. By financing a war by proxy in Afghanistan, a guerilla army in Tibet, assassinations in Chile, a failed coup in Cuba and arming Contras in Nicaragua, the CIA bet that by destabilizing competing nation states the could further secure America’s position in the world. And, despite some terrible public relations, the CIA’s efforts worked.

The ISI has every motivation to do the same thing in India.

In the past six months there have been ten major terrorist attacks across India, the highest rate of violence in more than a decade. Bombings in Hyderabad, Jaipur, Varanasi, Bangalore, Delhi and Bombay spread panic across the country, and the groups claiming responsibility were new and apparently homegrown. These so-called “Indian Muhajaddin” use hit and run tactics and claim to have fundamentalist politics—but released very little information about its political demands claiming that it was practicing Jihad for Jihad’s sake. At best their ideology is just meant to signal general Islamic discontent. In other words, the ideology is a thin veil for ISI to claim plausible deniability.

The Indian versions of these so-called Islamic fundamentalists do not appear to have a legitimate ideological base. This separates them from every other terrorist group in the last 40-odd years that had specific political demands. The IRA strove for independence from Ireland, Basques from Spain, Hezbollah for an independent Palestine, the LTTE for an independent Tamil State, and Naxalites for a communist revolution. Even Al Qaeda’s rabidly fundamentalist politics expressed a political ideology for independence from the west and establishing a government according to sharia law.

Local terror groups in India did not seem to have any concrete ideology apart from spreading violence, and perhaps inter-ethnic conflict. At best they have the political savvy of the Columbine school shooters. Their motivations are ultimately inscrutable—and patently false.
Many reports show shady linkages kept to Pakistani immigrants and ISI funding, not local radical mosques preaching jihad. Only a few months ago even the CIA fingered ISI behind the bombing of India’s embassy in Kabul. At best the half-hearted proclamations of the Indian and Deccan Muhajaddins to “free Islamic fighters from Indian prisons” were only a thin veil to disguise their real agendas.

Now, with a tactical attack on southern Mumbai that used military tactics, and even satellite communication with a base in Karachi it is clear that there is no homegrown anti-India Islamic agenda. Instead, it seems that Pakistan’s intelligence agency has been trying to spread instability across India to achieve its own strategic ends.

India now must contemplate a response to the actions of ISI. Many segments of Pakistan’s government want peace with the India, and it is likely that the agency has been acting on its own without approval from elected officials. But unless the government is able to regain control of ISI the recent attacks on Mumbai could be construed as an act of war.

**UPDATE: Some changes have been made to this post. In the original version I was more certain about the role of ISI, but reader feedback has made me reconsider some points. While it is apparent that the assailants on Mumbai had help from Pakistan, and likely from members of the intelligence service, it could be that factions from within the security agency acted without authorization from the top-brass.

India's New Terror Age

Victoria Terminal in Mumbai after a blast last night AFP/Getty

A coordinated series of terrorist attacks in Mumbai today signals a new age of extremism and sectarian violence that will likely increase over time. Since 2001 there have been 24 major terrorist strikes in India resulting in at least 966 deaths. The last five months have been the most harrowing with 302 dead from ten different attacks. As a hostage standoff continues in Colaba that number could rise even higher before the day is out.

What is most troubling about the recent assault on southern Mumbai is the sudden change in tactics. In the last several years most terrorist attacks have come in the form of coordinated small explosive charges, mostly left in nylon bags in commercial districts or IEDs made out of tiffin containers placed on the backs of bicycles in crowded shopping areas. What happened today doesn't fit the pattern of previous events. This wasn't a terrorist attack, this was a coordinated military assault on southern Mumbai executed with precision and calculated to inflict economic, civic, human and symbolic causalities.

Insurgents armed with automatic weapons ran lose on the streets, raided upscale hotels, took hostages and may have specifically targeted foreigners. They set fires in buildings and hijacked police vehicles. Unlike in previous events they weren't afraid to show their faces. These isn't hit and run tactics. This is urban warfare.

Police outside the Taj Hotel in Collaba, Mumbai Prashanth Vishwanathan, NYT

While there is no clear indication of who is behind the most recent string of attacks they must have had significant training and solid financial backing to carry them out. Armed with AK-47's, several boats, satellite phones, grenades and high explosives the group was able to take lower Mumbai completely by surprise and outwit anti-terrorism squads that have been on high alert for months. This level of coordination shows that terrorists here are most likely well networked with other insurgent groups and that they probably share materiel and tactical knowledge. They also have the manpower to embark on large scale operations without putting their entire organization at risk.

While the previous bomb blasts around India could have been carried out by a few dozen dedicated assailants, this attack shows that there must be at least several hundred people planning, training and carrying out logistical missions.

One possible--and even likely--explanation is that whomever is behind this is has been sharing experience and material with any one of the other dozen armed separatist movements across India. The attack today resembles the organizational resilience of other veteran separatist movements in India like the Naxalites, Lakshar e Toiba or even the Sri Lankan LTTE.

This sort of knowledge sharing is not unprecedented. In the past, the LTTE and Naxalites have shared tactical information with groups as far away as the FARC, and while there are vast ideological differences between these groups they are all involved in similar tactical operations and urban warfare. Rediff.com reports that the attackers were in contact with people in Karachi, Pakistan via satelite phone during the operaiton and that the e-mail that claimed responsibility for the attacks had been sent from a source in Russia.

While instances of direct links between terrorist outfits are often difficult to establish concretely, in 2001, three members of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) were arrested in Columbia after sharing bomb making and tactical information with the Farc. These two totally different organizations saw it to be mutually beneficial to share resources, even though there was no ideological connection.

It will be interesting to know what sorts of explosives were used in the attacks last night. Some reports have indicated that they used the explosive RDX, which has both military and industrial applications. A little over a year ago Naxalites stole several tons of explosives from an Essar Steel mine in Chhattisgarh that have been used repeatedly in operations across the country. (At the left is a photo of captured explosives recovered from an unexploded IED that I took while visiting police outposts on the front line of that conflict. Other photos from that story can be found at this link). The haul captured by the Naxals would have been far too much for them to use in their operations against the police and paramilitary forces that the combat in the jungles of central India. There is likely a market for their excess explosives. And what better customer is there than another insurgent group that is trying to destabilize the government?

There is every indication that there will be more attacks to come and that even police successes in capturing terrorists have little impact. When Delhi police raided the house of several suspected terrorists belonging to an outfit called "The Indian Muhajaddin", they found a laptop had illustrated the organization's hierarchical structure. The police conducted dozens of raids across the country and for a while everyone here breathed a little easier.

But the structure of the organization was far from destabilized. Within three months they have been able to mount the most destructive attack in years. The sad fact is that terrorists are gaining ground in India and whomever is behind planning their operations is safe and celebrating the success of their operations.

If anything, this is only the beginning of a new age of terror in India.