Rekindling the Korean War

Yesterday North Korea announced that it would test a nuclear weapon in the coming days in order to bolster its defense against what it sees as a potential threat from the United States. The tests will likely destabilize the region and risk an arms race with Japan or a military strike by the US forces stationed in South Korea. With well over a million soldiers stationed on the line of control between the two Koreas an escalation in the conflict could lead to catastrophe.

In the last decade even China, it closest ally, has distanced itself from the tiny rogue nuclear sate and it sees threats from all sides. Its recent move is a gamble that neighboring countries will see the nuclear weapon as a deterrent that might allow it to lower its guard a little. Since two atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki no country has launched an attack against a country who has nuclear weapons, and North Korea sees possession of the weapons as a way to ensure security.

Sadly, North Korea is wrong. If it moves forward with the tests it is likely that in the coming weeks we will see a series of targeted attacks by US bombers on specific military instillations throughout the country. The US and Japan have said as much. This in turn will likely provoke North Korea to break the 53-year-old cease-fire and a conventional weapons campaign that will have America fighting a war on three fronts.

Still in its nascent phases it is unlikely that North Korea will have a delivery system powerful enough to target US soil with a nuclear weapon, and it is also unlikely that they have a sizable nuclear arsenal. But after testing an ICBM this summer, US authorities are most likely pondering a future where North Korea can directly threaten Los Angeles. From the US standpoint it makes more sense launch an attack now that will cripple North Korea's weapons program rather than wait until it becomes a larger problem to deal with.

This dance of death could be avoided if North Korea refrains from its tests.