Sunday, August 06, 2006

Nuclear Programs Have to Break the Rules

Iran is on the fast track to becoming the world's next nuclear power. Pakistan is building a new facility that could pump out enough highly enriched plutonium for 100 nuclear weapons a year. And North Korea is testing ICBMs that could drop the H-bomb on American soil. The only super-power left calls them rogue nations, yet Iran, Pakistan and North Korea are wildly successful in developing their own programs where countries that have tried to chart a legal course have floundered. In the current political climate it seems that the only way to join the prestigious Atomic Club is to break a few rules.

Look at India. The country's power grid is so woefully overburdened that blackouts sweep across the country every day. For the last year it has been in negotiations with the United States to share technology and purchase uranium so that its civilian nuclear program can get off the ground. While the deal looked promising after Bush visited a few months ago, India has had to grovel at the feet of a few US Senators who "have reservations" about sharing resources. The senators fear that India could still be a security threat. The original deal is being cut to pieces and US diplomats are even using it to alter India's trade policies. In a special report, the Deccan Chronicle said that the US has slapped sanctions on the India-based Balaji Amines Ltd for supplying medical equipment to Iran. The US said that if the relationship isn't reigned in it could jeopardize the nuclear deal. By trying to remain transparent and above the board, India has only lost ground.

Meanwhile, the three countries that blatantly ignore international treaties and endure a little worldwide scorn have each made steady progress on their own programs. The United States has rattled its saber, but it has so thoroughly overextended itself in Iraq and Afghanistan that there is almost no chance that it takes any more serious action than sanctions and a few stern words. In the case of Iran and North Korea who have already endured decades of sanctions there is really very little incentive to play by anyone else's rules.

It is still possible that the deal with India eventually turns into a fruitful relationship that will help meet its target goal of using nuclear power to meet 25% of its energy needs. But it is just as likely that the deal falls through and India is left with no options but to follow the lead of "rogue nations".

The result is that the United States is completely undermining its aim to set up worldwide safeguards to monitor nuclear programs. By setting the bar so high, other nations that want to adopt nuclear technology will probably take a lesson from India and decide to step out on their own and pursue covert nuclear programs. After all, the worst the risk are a few sneers by the United States.

1 Comments:

At August 12, 2006 8:51 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dude, the US is totally overplaying its hand in India. they have outnegotiated India, but that just makes the deal so much more vulnerable : everntually, the Indians will wisen up and shred the deal to pieces. Even if they sign it today, it is questionable how much of it will be really enforceable without pissing off the Indians too much.

 

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